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Shangyu Pterosaur vs Zibo Qisheng — League Two 2022

Shangyu Pterosaur
Shangyu Pterosaur
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
9/19/2023League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 5Shangyu Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Shangyu Pterosaur40%
×Draw28%
Zibo Qisheng33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.26
Zibo Qisheng
1.12

Shangyu Pterosaur creates 13% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 18 away

creates per match

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.46
Zibo Qisheng
0.61

allows per match

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.63
Zibo Qisheng
1.06

finishing

Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par
Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shangyu Pterosaur ↓

Zibo Qisheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shangyu Pterosaur or draw
67%
Shangyu Pterosaur or Zibo Qisheng
72%
Draw or Zibo Qisheng
60%

Winning margin

Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+
17%
Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals
72%
Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals
36%
Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals
13%
Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
67%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
31%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)
55%
Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shangyu Pterosaur at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

Zibo Qisheng away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 1.46 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.26

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.61 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shangyu Pterosaur scores more
40%
level
28%
Zibo Qisheng scores more
33%

Shangyu Pterosaur at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shangyu Pterosaur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Shangyu Pterosaur 0–1 Zibo Qisheng

Zibo Qisheng beat Shangyu Pterosaur 1-0 in League Two on September 19, 2023.

The match was played at Shangyu Sports Center Stadium in Shaoxing.