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Zibo Qisheng vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
7/16/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Dalian Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zibo Qisheng35%
×Draw28%
Quanzhou Yassin37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Qisheng
1.13
Quanzhou Yassin
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 47 away

creates per match

Zibo Qisheng
0.47
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Zibo Qisheng
1.58
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Qisheng ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zibo Qisheng or draw
63%
Zibo Qisheng or Quanzhou Yassin
72%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
65%

Winning margin

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
14%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
68%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
31%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
11%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
69%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
33%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
48%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Qisheng at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.47 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.13

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zibo Qisheng scores more
35%
level
28%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
37%

Quanzhou Yassin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Quanzhou Yassin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zibo Qisheng vs Quanzhou Yassin

Zibo Qisheng and Quanzhou Yassin drew 1-1 in League Two on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10 in Dalian.