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Quanzhou Yassin vs Zibo Qisheng — League Two 2022

Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
8/9/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Dalian Puwan Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin34%
×Draw31%
Zibo Qisheng35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quanzhou Yassin
0.97
Zibo Qisheng
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 18 away

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin
0.88
Zibo Qisheng
0.61

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin
1.38
Zibo Qisheng
1.06

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par
Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Zibo Qisheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw
65%
Quanzhou Yassin or Zibo Qisheng
69%
Draw or Zibo Qisheng
66%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
12%
Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
62%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
25%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
7%
Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
63%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
26%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
49%
Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Zibo Qisheng away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.61 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more
34%
level
31%
Zibo Qisheng scores more
35%

Zibo Qisheng at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Zibo Qisheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Quanzhou Yassin 0–0 Zibo Qisheng

Quanzhou Yassin and Zibo Qisheng drew 0-0 in League Two on August 9, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Puwan Outfield in Dalian.