Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zibo Qisheng vs Qingdao Red Lions — League Two 2022

Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
5/13/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Zibo Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zibo Qisheng23%
×Draw29%
Qingdao Red Lions48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Qisheng
0.77
Qingdao Red Lions
1.27

Qingdao Red Lions creates 65% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zibo Qisheng
0.47
Qingdao Red Lions
0.96

allows per match

Zibo Qisheng
1.58
Qingdao Red Lions
1.07

finishing

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par
Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Qisheng ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zibo Qisheng or draw
52%
Zibo Qisheng or Qingdao Red Lions
71%
Draw or Qingdao Red Lions
77%

Winning margin

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
7%
Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
54%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
18%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
4%
Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
72%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
36%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
32%
Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Qisheng at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.47 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.77

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.96 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zibo Qisheng scores more
23%
level
29%
Qingdao Red Lions scores more
48%

Qingdao Red Lions at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Qingdao Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zibo Qisheng vs Qingdao Red Lions

Qingdao Red Lions beat Zibo Qisheng 1-0 in League Two on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Zibo Sports Center Stadium in Zibo.