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Qingdao Red Lions vs Zibo Qisheng — League Two 2022

Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
7/9/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 10Qingdao Tiantai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Qingdao Red Lions42%
×Draw32%
Zibo Qisheng25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Red Lions
1.05
Zibo Qisheng
0.73

Qingdao Red Lions creates 44% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

creates per match

Qingdao Red Lions
1.04
Zibo Qisheng
0.61

allows per match

Qingdao Red Lions
0.85
Zibo Qisheng
1.06

finishing

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par
Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Red Lions ↓

Zibo Qisheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Qingdao Red Lions or draw
75%
Qingdao Red Lions or Zibo Qisheng
68%
Draw or Zibo Qisheng
58%

Winning margin

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
17%
Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
65%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
28%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
9%
Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
52%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
17%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
63%
Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Red Lions at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Zibo Qisheng away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Red Lions attack 1.04 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.05

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.61 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Qingdao Red Lions scores more
42%
level
32%
Zibo Qisheng scores more
25%

Qingdao Red Lions at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Qingdao Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Qingdao Red Lions 2–0 Zibo Qisheng

Qingdao Red Lions beat Zibo Qisheng 2-0 in League Two on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Qingdao Tiantai Stadium in Qingdao.