Zibo Qisheng 0–0 Hainan Star: Result & Stats

Zibo Qisheng

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hainan Star

10/21/2023

League Two · Relegation Round - 8Zibo Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zibo Qisheng34%

×Draw28%

Hainan Star38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zibo QishengExpected goals in this matchHainan Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.23

Zibo Qisheng

1.14

Hainan Star

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 48 away

0.47

creates per match

0.88

1.58

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Zibo Qisheng

0.47

Hainan Star

0.88

allows per match

Zibo Qisheng

1.58

Hainan Star

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Qisheng ↓

Hainan Star →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Zibo Qisheng or draw

62%

Zibo Qisheng or Hainan Star

72%

Draw or Hainan Star

66%

Winning margin

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+

14%

Hainan Star wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals

68%

Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals

32%

Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals

11%

Hainan Star 1+ goals

71%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

35%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)

47%

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Qisheng at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Hainan Star away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.47 + Hainan Star defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.14

Hainan Star attack 0.88 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zibo Qisheng scores more

34%

level

28%

Hainan Star scores more

38%

Hainan Star at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hainan Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff