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Hainan Star vs Zibo Qisheng — League Two 2022

Hainan Star
Hainan Star
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
9/9/2023League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 4Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hainan Star38%
×Draw30%
Zibo Qisheng31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hainan Star
1.08
Zibo Qisheng
0.95

Hainan Star creates 14% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hainan Star
1.11
Zibo Qisheng
0.61

allows per match

Hainan Star
1.28
Zibo Qisheng
1.06

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par
Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Zibo Qisheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw
69%
Hainan Star or Zibo Qisheng
70%
Draw or Zibo Qisheng
62%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+
15%
Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals
66%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
29%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
10%
Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
61%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
25%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)
55%
Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Zibo Qisheng away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.61 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hainan Star scores more
38%
level
30%
Zibo Qisheng scores more
31%

Hainan Star at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hainan Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hainan Star 1–0 Zibo Qisheng

Hainan Star beat Zibo Qisheng 1-0 in League Two on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Haikou.