Zibo Qisheng 0–4 Dalian Zhixing: Result & Stats

Zibo Qisheng

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Dalian Zhixing

6/5/2023

League Two · Round 5Zibo Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Zibo Qisheng15%

×Draw25%

Dalian Zhixing59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zibo QishengExpected goals in this matchDalian Zhixing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

1.56

Zibo Qisheng

0.65

Dalian Zhixing

1.56

Dalian Zhixing creates 140% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

0.47

creates per match

1.55

1.58

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Zibo Qisheng

0.47

Dalian Zhixing

1.55

allows per match

Zibo Qisheng

1.58

Dalian Zhixing

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Qisheng ↓

Dalian Zhixing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zibo Qisheng or draw

41%

Zibo Qisheng or Dalian Zhixing

75%

Draw or Dalian Zhixing

85%

Winning margin

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+

4%

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals

48%

Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals

14%

Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals

3%

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

79%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

46%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)

21%

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Qisheng at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.47 + Dalian Zhixing defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.65

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.55 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zibo Qisheng scores more

15%

level

25%

Dalian Zhixing scores more

59%

Dalian Zhixing at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff