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Dalian Zhixing vs Zibo Qisheng — League Two 2022

Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
7/22/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 12Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dalian Zhixing53%
×Draw33%
Zibo Qisheng14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Zhixing
1.12
Zibo Qisheng
0.44

Dalian Zhixing creates 155% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing
1.18
Zibo Qisheng
0.61

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing
0.27
Zibo Qisheng
1.06

finishing

Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par
Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Zibo Qisheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw
86%
Dalian Zhixing or Zibo Qisheng
67%
Draw or Zibo Qisheng
47%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
23%
Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
67%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
31%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
10%
Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
36%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
7%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
78%
Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Zibo Qisheng away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.18 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.61 + Dalian Zhixing defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more
53%
level
33%
Zibo Qisheng scores more
14%

Dalian Zhixing at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Dalian Zhixing 1–1 Zibo Qisheng

Dalian Zhixing and Zibo Qisheng drew 1-1 in League Two on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Jinzhou Stadium in Dalian.