Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zibo Cuju vs Wuhan Three Towns — League One 2018

Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
10/5/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 16Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zibo Cuju18%
×Draw24%
Wuhan Three Towns58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Cuju
0.81
Wuhan Three Towns
1.69

Wuhan Three Towns creates 109% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zibo Cuju
0.97
Wuhan Three Towns
2.00

allows per match

Zibo Cuju
1.38
Wuhan Three Towns
0.65

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par
Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw
42%
Zibo Cuju or Wuhan Three Towns
76%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns
82%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
5%
Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
56%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
19%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
5%
Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
82%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
50%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
23%
Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.81

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.00 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more
18%
level
24%
Wuhan Three Towns scores more
58%

Wuhan Three Towns at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zibo Cuju vs Wuhan Three Towns

Wuhan Three Towns beat Zibo Cuju 3-0 in League One on October 5, 2021.

The match was played at Tazi Lake Sports Centre in Wuhan.