Wuhan Three Towns 3–1 Zibo Cuju: Result & Stats

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zibo Cuju

9/18/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 12Tazi Lake Sports Centre Football Field 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns62%

×Draw21%

Zibo Cuju17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchZibo Cuju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.94

Wuhan Three Towns

2.00

Zibo Cuju

0.94

Wuhan Three Towns creates 113% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

2.29

creates per match

1.06

0.82

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

2.29

Zibo Cuju

1.06

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

0.82

Zibo Cuju

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Zibo Cuju →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

83%

Wuhan Three Towns or Zibo Cuju

79%

Draw or Zibo Cuju

38%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

38%

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

86%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

59%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

32%

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

61%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

24%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

78%

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Zibo Cuju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.29 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.00

Zibo Cuju attack 1.06 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

62%

level

21%

Zibo Cuju scores more

17%

Wuhan Three Towns at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff