Zibo Cuju 0–0 Shenyang Urban: Result & Stats

Zibo Cuju

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shenyang Urban

9/21/2022

League One · Round 22Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zibo Cuju36%

×Draw28%

Shenyang Urban37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zibo CujuExpected goals in this matchShenyang Urban

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.21

Zibo Cuju

1.19

Shenyang Urban

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

0.97

creates per match

1.03

1.38

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Zibo Cuju

0.97

Shenyang Urban

1.03

allows per match

Zibo Cuju

1.38

Shenyang Urban

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Shenyang Urban →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw

63%

Zibo Cuju or Shenyang Urban

72%

Draw or Shenyang Urban

64%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

15%

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

70%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

33%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

12%

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals

70%

Shenyang Urban 2+ goals

34%

Shenyang Urban 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

49%

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.41 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Shenyang Urban attack 1.03 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more

36%

level

28%

Shenyang Urban scores more

37%

Shenyang Urban at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff