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Shenyang Urban vs Zibo Cuju — League One 2018

Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
9/2/2022League OneLeague One · Round 18Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shenyang Urban46%
×Draw25%
Zibo Cuju29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenyang Urban
1.57
Zibo Cuju
1.21

Shenyang Urban creates 30% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

creates per match

Shenyang Urban
1.43
Zibo Cuju
1.06

allows per match

Shenyang Urban
1.36
Zibo Cuju
1.71

finishing

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par
Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Zibo Cuju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw
71%
Shenyang Urban or Zibo Cuju
75%
Draw or Zibo Cuju
54%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
23%
Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
79%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
46%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
21%
Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
70%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
34%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
61%
Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Zibo Cuju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.43 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Zibo Cuju attack 1.06 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more
46%
level
25%
Zibo Cuju scores more
29%

Shenyang Urban at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shenyang Urban vs Zibo Cuju

Zibo Cuju beat Shenyang Urban 2-0 in League One on September 2, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2 in Nanjing.