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Zibo Cuju vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018

Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
8/16/2022League OneLeague One · Round 16Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zibo Cuju35%
×Draw27%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Cuju
1.19
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 124 away

creates per match

Zibo Cuju
0.97
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Zibo Cuju
1.38
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw
62%
Zibo Cuju or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
73%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
65%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
15%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
70%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
33%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
12%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
71%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
36%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
48%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more
35%
level
27%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
38%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Zibo Cuju 2–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Zibo Cuju beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2-1 in League One on August 16, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.