Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3–0 Zibo Cuju

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

FT

3 – 0

Zibo Cuju

8/1/2022

League One · Round 12Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring49%

×Draw25%

Zibo Cuju26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heilongjiang Lava SpringExpected goals in this matchZibo Cuju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.07

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.58

Zibo Cuju

1.07

Heilongjiang Lava Spring creates 48% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 34 away

1.45

creates per match

1.06

1.08

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.45

Zibo Cuju

1.06

allows per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.08

Zibo Cuju

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓

Zibo Cuju →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw

74%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or Zibo Cuju

75%

Draw or Zibo Cuju

51%

Winning margin

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+

25%

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals

79%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals

47%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals

21%

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

66%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

29%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)

66%

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Zibo Cuju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.45 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

Zibo Cuju attack 1.06 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more

49%

level

25%

Zibo Cuju scores more

26%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff