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Zibo Cuju vs Hebei Kungfu — League One 2018

Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hebei Kungfu
Hebei Kungfu
6/16/2022League OneLeague One · Round 3Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zibo Cuju29%
×Draw28%
Hebei Kungfu42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Cuju
1.00
Hebei Kungfu
1.26

Hebei Kungfu creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

creates per match

Zibo Cuju
0.97
Hebei Kungfu
1.14

allows per match

Zibo Cuju
1.38
Hebei Kungfu
1.03

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par
Hebei Kungfu+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Hebei Kungfu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw
58%
Zibo Cuju or Hebei Kungfu
72%
Draw or Hebei Kungfu
71%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
11%
Hebei Kungfu wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
63%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
26%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
8%
Hebei Kungfu 1+ goals
72%
Hebei Kungfu 2+ goals
36%
Hebei Kungfu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
41%
Hebei Kungfu (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Hebei Kungfu away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.03 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Hebei Kungfu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Hebei Kungfu attack 1.14 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more
29%
level
28%
Hebei Kungfu scores more
42%

Hebei Kungfu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hebei Kungfu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zibo Cuju vs Hebei Kungfu

Zibo Cuju and Hebei Kungfu drew 2-2 in League One on June 16, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1 in Tangshan.