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Hebei Kungfu vs Zibo Cuju — League One 2018

Hebei Kungfu
Hebei Kungfu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
7/4/2022League OneLeague One · Round 7Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hebei Kungfu50%
×Draw26%
Zibo Cuju24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebei Kungfu
1.53
Zibo Cuju
0.97

Hebei Kungfu creates 58% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hebei Kungfu
1.35
Zibo Cuju
1.06

allows per match

Hebei Kungfu
0.87
Zibo Cuju
1.71

finishing

Hebei Kungfu+0.00on par
Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Kungfu ↓

Zibo Cuju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hebei Kungfu or draw
76%
Hebei Kungfu or Zibo Cuju
74%
Draw or Zibo Cuju
50%

Winning margin

Hebei Kungfu wins by 2+
26%
Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hebei Kungfu 1+ goals
78%
Hebei Kungfu 2+ goals
45%
Hebei Kungfu 3+ goals
20%
Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
62%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
25%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hebei Kungfu (draw refunded)
68%
Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Kungfu at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 69 matches

Zibo Cuju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Kungfu attack 1.35 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Zibo Cuju attack 1.06 + Hebei Kungfu defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hebei Kungfu scores more
50%
level
26%
Zibo Cuju scores more
24%

Hebei Kungfu at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hebei Kungfu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hebei Kungfu 1 – 0 Zibo Cuju

Hebei Kungfu beat Zibo Cuju 1-0 in League One on July 4, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.2 in Tangshan.