Zibo Cuju 0–0 Guangxi Baoyun: Result & Stats

Zibo Cuju

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guangxi Baoyun

6/29/2022

League One · Round 6Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zibo Cuju35%

×Draw29%

Guangxi Baoyun36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zibo CujuExpected goals in this matchGuangxi Baoyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.12

Zibo Cuju

1.11

Guangxi Baoyun

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 63 away

0.97

creates per match

0.86

1.38

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Zibo Cuju

0.97

Guangxi Baoyun

0.86

allows per match

Zibo Cuju

1.38

Guangxi Baoyun

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw

64%

Zibo Cuju or Guangxi Baoyun

71%

Draw or Guangxi Baoyun

65%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

14%

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

67%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

30%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

10%

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals

67%

Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals

31%

Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

50%

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more

35%

level

29%

Guangxi Baoyun scores more

36%

Guangxi Baoyun at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zibo Cuju vs Guangxi Baoyun

Zibo Cuju and Guangxi Baoyun drew 0-0 in League One on June 29, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.3 in Tangshan.

Zibo Cuju vs Guangxi Baoyun — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Zibo Cuju vs Guangxi Baoyun