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Guangxi Baoyun vs Zibo Cuju — League One 2018

Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
6/13/2022League OneLeague One · Round 2Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guangxi Baoyun49%
×Draw26%
Zibo Cuju26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Baoyun
1.52
Zibo Cuju
1.03

Guangxi Baoyun creates 48% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 34 away

creates per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.32
Zibo Cuju
1.06

allows per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.00
Zibo Cuju
1.71

finishing

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par
Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Baoyun ↓

Zibo Cuju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guangxi Baoyun or draw
74%
Guangxi Baoyun or Zibo Cuju
74%
Draw or Zibo Cuju
51%

Winning margin

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
25%
Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
78%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
45%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
20%
Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
64%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
28%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
65%
Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Zibo Cuju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.32 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zibo Cuju attack 1.06 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guangxi Baoyun scores more
49%
level
26%
Zibo Cuju scores more
26%

Guangxi Baoyun at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangxi Baoyun vs Zibo Cuju

Guangxi Baoyun beat Zibo Cuju 4-1 in League One on June 13, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.3 in Tangshan.