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Zhytlobud-2 W vs BIIK Kazygurt W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Zhytlobud-2 W
Zhytlobud-2 W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
BIIK Kazygurt W
BIIK Kazygurt W
12/9/2020UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsStadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zhytlobud-2 W80%
×Draw12%
BIIK Kazygurt W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhytlobud-2 W
3.02
BIIK Kazygurt W
0.85

Zhytlobud-2 W creates 255% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Zhytlobud-2 W
4.25
BIIK Kazygurt W
1.20

allows per match

Zhytlobud-2 W
0.50
BIIK Kazygurt W
1.80

finishing

Zhytlobud-2 W+0.00on par
BIIK Kazygurt W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhytlobud-2 W ↓

BIIK Kazygurt W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Zhytlobud-2 W or draw
92%
Zhytlobud-2 W or BIIK Kazygurt W
88%
Draw or BIIK Kazygurt W
20%

Winning margin

Zhytlobud-2 W wins by 2+
61%
BIIK Kazygurt W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Zhytlobud-2 W 1+ goals
95%
Zhytlobud-2 W 2+ goals
80%
Zhytlobud-2 W 3+ goals
57%
BIIK Kazygurt W 1+ goals
57%
BIIK Kazygurt W 2+ goals
21%
BIIK Kazygurt W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zhytlobud-2 W (draw refunded)
91%
BIIK Kazygurt W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhytlobud-2 W at home — creates 4.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

BIIK Kazygurt W away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhytlobud-2 W attack 4.25 + BIIK Kazygurt W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 3.02

BIIK Kazygurt W attack 1.20 + Zhytlobud-2 W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Zhytlobud-2 W scores more
80%
level
12%
BIIK Kazygurt W scores more
8%

Zhytlobud-2 W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Zhytlobud-2 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Zhytlobud-2 W 2–1 BIIK Kazygurt W

Zhytlobud-2 W beat BIIK Kazygurt W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on December 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo in Poltava.