BIIK Kazygurt W 0–2 Zhytlobud-2 W: Result & Stats

BIIK Kazygurt W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Zhytlobud-2 W

8/21/2022

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - FinalsStadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

BIIK Kazygurt W37%

×Draw25%

Zhytlobud-2 W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIIK Kazygurt WExpected goals in this matchZhytlobud-2 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.44

BIIK Kazygurt W

1.41

Zhytlobud-2 W

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

2.06

creates per match

1.25

1.63

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

BIIK Kazygurt W

2.06

Zhytlobud-2 W

1.25

allows per match

BIIK Kazygurt W

1.63

Zhytlobud-2 W

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BIIK Kazygurt W+0.00on par

Zhytlobud-2 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BIIK Kazygurt W ↓

Zhytlobud-2 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

BIIK Kazygurt W or draw

62%

BIIK Kazygurt W or Zhytlobud-2 W

75%

Draw or Zhytlobud-2 W

63%

Winning margin

BIIK Kazygurt W wins by 2+

17%

Zhytlobud-2 W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

BIIK Kazygurt W 1+ goals

76%

BIIK Kazygurt W 2+ goals

41%

BIIK Kazygurt W 3+ goals

17%

Zhytlobud-2 W 1+ goals

76%

Zhytlobud-2 W 2+ goals

42%

Zhytlobud-2 W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

BIIK Kazygurt W (draw refunded)

49%

Zhytlobud-2 W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BIIK Kazygurt W at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Zhytlobud-2 W away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BIIK Kazygurt W attack 2.06 + Zhytlobud-2 W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Zhytlobud-2 W attack 1.25 + BIIK Kazygurt W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

BIIK Kazygurt W scores more

37%

level

25%

Zhytlobud-2 W scores more

38%

Zhytlobud-2 W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zhytlobud-2 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff