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Zhytlobud-1 W vs Apollon Limassol W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Zhytlobud-1 W
Zhytlobud-1 W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Apollon Limassol W
Apollon Limassol W
9/9/2021UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundOblasny SportKomplex Metalist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zhytlobud-1 W53%
×Draw20%
Apollon Limassol W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhytlobud-1 W
2.33
Apollon Limassol W
1.65

Zhytlobud-1 W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Zhytlobud-1 W
2.25
Apollon Limassol W
1.80

allows per match

Zhytlobud-1 W
1.50
Apollon Limassol W
2.40

finishing

Zhytlobud-1 W+0.00on par
Apollon Limassol W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhytlobud-1 W ↓

Apollon Limassol W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Zhytlobud-1 W or draw
73%
Zhytlobud-1 W or Apollon Limassol W
80%
Draw or Apollon Limassol W
47%

Winning margin

Zhytlobud-1 W wins by 2+
32%
Apollon Limassol W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zhytlobud-1 W 1+ goals
90%
Zhytlobud-1 W 2+ goals
67%
Zhytlobud-1 W 3+ goals
41%
Apollon Limassol W 1+ goals
81%
Apollon Limassol W 2+ goals
49%
Apollon Limassol W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Zhytlobud-1 W (draw refunded)
66%
Apollon Limassol W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhytlobud-1 W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Apollon Limassol W away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhytlobud-1 W attack 2.25 + Apollon Limassol W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.33

Apollon Limassol W attack 1.80 + Zhytlobud-1 W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zhytlobud-1 W scores more
53%
level
20%
Apollon Limassol W scores more
27%

Zhytlobud-1 W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zhytlobud-1 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhytlobud-1 W vs Apollon Limassol W

Zhytlobud-1 W beat Apollon Limassol W 3-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 9, 2021.

The match was played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist in Kharkiv.