Apollon Limassol W 1–2 Zhytlobud-1 W

Apollon Limassol W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zhytlobud-1 W

8/31/2021

UEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundTsirion Athlítiko Kentro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Apollon Limassol W62%

×Draw18%

Zhytlobud-1 W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apollon Limassol WExpected goals in this matchZhytlobud-1 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.39

Apollon Limassol W

2.56

Zhytlobud-1 W

1.39

Apollon Limassol W creates 84% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

2.92

creates per match

1.40

1.38

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Apollon Limassol W

2.92

Zhytlobud-1 W

1.40

allows per match

Apollon Limassol W

1.38

Zhytlobud-1 W

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apollon Limassol W+0.00on par

Zhytlobud-1 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol W ↓

Zhytlobud-1 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol W or draw

80%

Apollon Limassol W or Zhytlobud-1 W

82%

Draw or Zhytlobud-1 W

38%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol W wins by 2+

41%

Zhytlobud-1 W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol W 1+ goals

92%

Apollon Limassol W 2+ goals

72%

Apollon Limassol W 3+ goals

46%

Zhytlobud-1 W 1+ goals

75%

Zhytlobud-1 W 2+ goals

40%

Zhytlobud-1 W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol W (draw refunded)

76%

Zhytlobud-1 W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol W at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Zhytlobud-1 W away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol W attack 2.92 + Zhytlobud-1 W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.56

Zhytlobud-1 W attack 1.40 + Apollon Limassol W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Apollon Limassol W scores more

62%

level

18%

Zhytlobud-1 W scores more

20%

Apollon Limassol W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Apollon Limassol W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff