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Zhuhai Qin'ao vs Inner Mongolia Caoshang. — League Two 2022

Zhuhai Qin'ao
Zhuhai Qin'ao
FT
3 – 0
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
10/27/2022League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 1Qiannan Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zhuhai Qin'ao53%
×Draw28%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhuhai Qin'ao
1.38
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.69

Zhuhai Qin'ao creates 100% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Zhuhai Qin'ao
1.00
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.75

allows per match

Zhuhai Qin'ao
0.63
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
1.75

finishing

Zhuhai Qin'ao+0.00on par
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhuhai Qin'ao ↓

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zhuhai Qin'ao or draw
81%
Zhuhai Qin'ao or Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
72%
Draw or Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
47%

Winning margin

Zhuhai Qin'ao wins by 2+
26%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zhuhai Qin'ao 1+ goals
75%
Zhuhai Qin'ao 2+ goals
40%
Zhuhai Qin'ao 3+ goals
16%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1+ goals
50%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 2+ goals
15%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Zhuhai Qin'ao (draw refunded)
74%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhuhai Qin'ao at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhuhai Qin'ao attack 1.00 + Inner Mongolia Caoshang. defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. attack 0.75 + Zhuhai Qin'ao defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zhuhai Qin'ao scores more
53%
level
28%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. scores more
19%

Zhuhai Qin'ao at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zhuhai Qin'ao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zhuhai Qin'ao 3 – 0 Inner Mongolia Caoshang.

Zhuhai Qin'ao beat Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 3-0 in League Two on October 27, 2022.

The match was played at Qiannan Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium in Qiannan.