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Inner Mongolia Caoshang. vs Zhuhai Qin'ao — League Two 2022

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zhuhai Qin'ao
Zhuhai Qin'ao
8/13/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Qiannan Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.9%
×Draw32%
Zhuhai Qin'ao58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.29
Zhuhai Qin'ao
1.15

Zhuhai Qin'ao creates 297% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.14
Zhuhai Qin'ao
1.00

allows per match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
1.29
Zhuhai Qin'ao
0.43

finishing

Inner Mongolia Caoshang.+0.00on par
Zhuhai Qin'ao+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

83%No
  • No83
  • Yes17

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. ↓

Zhuhai Qin'ao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–024%
0–127%
0–216%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (27%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
76%24%1.5
42%58%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. or draw
42%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. or Zhuhai Qin'ao
68%
Draw or Zhuhai Qin'ao
91%

Winning margin

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. wins by 2+
1%
Zhuhai Qin'ao wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1+ goals
25%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 2+ goals
3%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 3+ goals
0%
Zhuhai Qin'ao 1+ goals
68%
Zhuhai Qin'ao 2+ goals
32%
Zhuhai Qin'ao 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. (draw refunded)
14%
Zhuhai Qin'ao (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
9%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. at home — creates 0.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Zhuhai Qin'ao away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. attack 0.14 + Zhuhai Qin'ao defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.29

Zhuhai Qin'ao attack 1.00 + Inner Mongolia Caoshang. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. scores more
9%
level
32%
Zhuhai Qin'ao scores more
58%

Zhuhai Qin'ao at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zhuhai Qin'ao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 0–1 Zhuhai Qin'ao

Zhuhai Qin'ao beat Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1-0 in League Two on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Qiannan Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium in Qiannan.