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Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs Shakhtyor Petrikov — 1. Division 2018

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
7/2/20231. Division1. Division · Round 14Stadyen FLC Oktyabrsky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe44%
×Draw23%
Shakhtyor Petrikov33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.81
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.54

Zhodino Yuzhnoe creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 62 away

creates per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.53

allows per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.56
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.68

finishing

Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par
Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhodino Yuzhnoe ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Zhodino Yuzhnoe or draw
67%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe or Shakhtyor Petrikov
77%
Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov
56%

Winning margin

Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+
24%
Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals
84%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals
54%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals
27%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
79%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
45%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)
57%
Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.81

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more
44%
level
23%
Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
33%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zhodino Yuzhnoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3–0 Shakhtyor Petrikov

Zhodino Yuzhnoe beat Shakhtyor Petrikov 3-0 in 1. Division on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen FLC Oktyabrsky in Oktyabrsky.