Shakhtyor Petrikov 1–5 Zhodino Yuzhnoe

Shakhtyor Petrikov

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

11/5/2023

1. Division · Round 31Stadyen FOK Prypiać

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov34%

×Draw23%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtyor PetrikovExpected goals in this matchZhodino Yuzhnoe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.83

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.58

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.83

Zhodino Yuzhnoe creates 16% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 16 away

1.48

creates per match

1.94

1.72

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.48

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.94

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.72

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

Zhodino Yuzhnoe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw

56%

Shakhtyor Petrikov or Zhodino Yuzhnoe

77%

Draw or Zhodino Yuzhnoe

66%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+

16%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals

79%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals

47%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals

21%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals

84%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals

54%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)

43%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more

34%

level

23%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more

44%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zhodino Yuzhnoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff