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Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs FC Vitebsk — 1. Division 2018

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
8/16/20231. Division1. Division · Round 19Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe27%
×Draw22%
FC Vitebsk50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.38
FC Vitebsk
1.94

FC Vitebsk creates 41% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
FC Vitebsk
2.31

allows per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.56
FC Vitebsk
0.81

finishing

Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par
FC Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhodino Yuzhnoe ↓

FC Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Zhodino Yuzhnoe or draw
50%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe or FC Vitebsk
78%
Draw or FC Vitebsk
73%

Winning margin

Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+
12%
FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals
75%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals
40%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals
16%
FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
86%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
58%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)
35%
FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

FC Vitebsk away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + FC Vitebsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Vitebsk attack 2.31 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more
27%
level
22%
FC Vitebsk scores more
50%

FC Vitebsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1–2 FC Vitebsk

FC Vitebsk beat Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2-1 in 1. Division on August 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Tarpeda in Zhodino.