Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Vitebsk vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe — 1. Division 2018

FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
4/8/20231. Division1. Division · Round 2CSK Vitebskiy Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Vitebsk50%
×Draw23%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Vitebsk
1.81
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.25

FC Vitebsk creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

FC Vitebsk
1.94
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94

allows per match

FC Vitebsk
0.56
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.69

finishing

FC Vitebsk+0.00on par
Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vitebsk ↓

Zhodino Yuzhnoe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Vitebsk or draw
74%
FC Vitebsk or Zhodino Yuzhnoe
77%
Draw or Zhodino Yuzhnoe
50%

Winning margin

FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
28%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
84%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
54%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
27%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals
71%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals
36%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
66%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vitebsk at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vitebsk attack 1.94 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.81

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + FC Vitebsk defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Vitebsk scores more
50%
level
23%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more
26%

FC Vitebsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Vitebsk vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe

FC Vitebsk and Zhodino Yuzhnoe drew 0-0 in 1. Division on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at CSK Vitebskiy Iskusstvennoe pole in Vitebsk.