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Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs FC Dnepr Mogilev — 1. Division 2018

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
9/2/20231. Division1. Division · Round 22Stadyen Tarpeda Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe35%
×Draw23%
FC Dnepr Mogilev41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.55
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 49 away

creates per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.82

allows per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.56
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.16

finishing

Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par
FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhodino Yuzhnoe ↓

FC Dnepr Mogilev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zhodino Yuzhnoe or draw
59%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe or FC Dnepr Mogilev
77%
Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev
65%

Winning margin

Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+
17%
FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals
79%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals
46%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals
20%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
82%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
50%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)
46%
FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.55

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 1.82 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more
35%
level
23%
FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
41%

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs FC Dnepr Mogilev

FC Dnepr Mogilev beat Zhodino Yuzhnoe 4-0 in 1. Division on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Tarpeda Iskusstvennoe pole in Zhodino.