FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 Zhodino Yuzhnoe

FC Dnepr Mogilev

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

5/1/2023

1. Division · Round 5Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev49%

×Draw23%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Dnepr MogilevExpected goals in this matchZhodino Yuzhnoe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.39

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.88

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.39

FC Dnepr Mogilev creates 35% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 16 away

2.06

creates per match

1.94

0.84

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev

2.06

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.94

allows per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev

0.84

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dnepr Mogilev ↓

Zhodino Yuzhnoe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw

71%

FC Dnepr Mogilev or Zhodino Yuzhnoe

77%

Draw or Zhodino Yuzhnoe

51%

Winning margin

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+

27%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals

85%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals

56%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals

29%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals

75%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals

40%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)

63%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dnepr Mogilev at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 2.06 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.88

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more

49%

level

23%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more

29%

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff