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Zhetysu vs Altay — Premier League 2019

Zhetysu
Zhetysu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Altay
Altay
I. Dadaev 6' (pen)
7/11/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zhetysu40%
×Draw30%
Altay30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhetysu
1.16
Altay
0.97

Zhetysu creates 20% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 8 away

creates per match

Zhetysu
1.06
Altay
0.75

allows per match

Zhetysu
1.19
Altay
1.25

finishing

Zhetysu+0.00on par
Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu ↓

Altay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zhetysu or draw
70%
Zhetysu or Altay
70%
Draw or Altay
60%

Winning margin

Zhetysu wins by 2+
17%
Altay wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zhetysu 1+ goals
69%
Zhetysu 2+ goals
32%
Zhetysu 3+ goals
11%
Altay 1+ goals
62%
Altay 2+ goals
25%
Altay 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu (draw refunded)
57%
Altay (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 81 matches

Altay away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu attack 1.06 + Altay defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Altay attack 0.75 + Zhetysu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zhetysu scores more
40%
level
30%
Altay scores more
30%

Zhetysu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zhetysu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
I. DadaevPenalty
29'
D. Podstrelov
45+3'
A. Baltabekov
45+3'
D. Schmidt
46'
E. Lobzhanidze← I. Dadaev
53'
Z. Kukeev← A. Nazymkhanov
54'
D. Dodev← E. Gorshunov
76'
S. Abzalov← M. Zivanovic
77'
M. Zhakipbayev← A. Adakhadziev
85'
N. Nurbol← S. Muzhikov
85'
S. Anuarbek← D. Luna
90+3'
R. Orynbassar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhetysu vs Altay

Altay beat Zhetysu 1-0 in Premier League on July 11, 2026.

Goals: I. Dadaev (6' pen).