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Zhetysu vs Altay — Cup 2019

Zhetysu
Zhetysu
FT
4 – 0
Altay
Altay
4/6/2022CupCup · 1st Preliminary RoundOrtalıq Stadion Jetisu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zhetysu53%
×Draw32%
Altay15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhetysu
1.17
Altay
0.49

Zhetysu creates 139% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Zhetysu
0.63
Altay
0.86

allows per match

Zhetysu
0.13
Altay
1.71

finishing

Zhetysu+0.00on par
Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu ↓

Altay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Zhetysu or draw
85%
Zhetysu or Altay
68%
Draw or Altay
47%

Winning margin

Zhetysu wins by 2+
24%
Altay wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zhetysu 1+ goals
69%
Zhetysu 2+ goals
33%
Zhetysu 3+ goals
11%
Altay 1+ goals
39%
Altay 2+ goals
9%
Altay 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu (draw refunded)
77%
Altay (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.13 · 8 matches

Altay away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu attack 0.63 + Altay defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.17

Altay attack 0.86 + Zhetysu defence 0.13 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zhetysu scores more
53%
level
32%
Altay scores more
15%

Zhetysu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zhetysu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhetysu vs Altay

Zhetysu beat Altay 4-0 in Cup on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion Jetisu in Taldykorgan.