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Zhetysu II vs Sport Academy Kairat — 1. Division 2019

Zhetysu II
Zhetysu II
FT
0 – 0
Sport Academy Kairat
Sport Academy Kairat
9/29/20201. Division1. Division · Group 1 - 5UTB Talgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zhetysu II51%
×Draw22%
Sport Academy Kairat26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhetysu II
1.93
Sport Academy Kairat
1.33

Zhetysu II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 90 away

creates per match

Zhetysu II
2.26
Sport Academy Kairat
1.92

allows per match

Zhetysu II
0.74
Sport Academy Kairat
1.60

finishing

Zhetysu II+0.00on par
Sport Academy Kairat+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu II ↓

Sport Academy Kairat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Zhetysu II or draw
74%
Zhetysu II or Sport Academy Kairat
78%
Draw or Sport Academy Kairat
49%

Winning margin

Zhetysu II wins by 2+
29%
Sport Academy Kairat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zhetysu II 1+ goals
85%
Zhetysu II 2+ goals
57%
Zhetysu II 3+ goals
30%
Sport Academy Kairat 1+ goals
74%
Sport Academy Kairat 2+ goals
38%
Sport Academy Kairat 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu II (draw refunded)
66%
Sport Academy Kairat (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Sport Academy Kairat away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.60 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu II attack 2.26 + Sport Academy Kairat defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sport Academy Kairat attack 1.92 + Zhetysu II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zhetysu II scores more
51%
level
22%
Sport Academy Kairat scores more
26%

Zhetysu II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zhetysu II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
M. Kotov
67'
M. Kotov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhetysu II vs Sport Academy Kairat

Zhetysu II and Sport Academy Kairat drew 0-0 in 1. Division on September 29, 2020.

The match was played at UTB Talgar in Talgar.