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Sport Academy Kairat vs Zhetysu II — 1. Division 2019

Sport Academy Kairat
Sport Academy Kairat
FT
0 – 1
Zhetysu II
Zhetysu II
8/15/20181. Division1. Division · Round 23Stadïon Akademïï T.S.Segïzbaeva (Almatı (Almaty))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sport Academy Kairat51%
×Draw23%
Zhetysu II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Academy Kairat
1.78
Zhetysu II
1.21

Sport Academy Kairat creates 47% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sport Academy Kairat
2.57
Zhetysu II
1.05

allows per match

Sport Academy Kairat
1.37
Zhetysu II
1.00

finishing

Sport Academy Kairat+0.00on par
Zhetysu II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Academy Kairat ↓

Zhetysu II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sport Academy Kairat or draw
74%
Sport Academy Kairat or Zhetysu II
77%
Draw or Zhetysu II
49%

Winning margin

Sport Academy Kairat wins by 2+
28%
Zhetysu II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sport Academy Kairat 1+ goals
83%
Sport Academy Kairat 2+ goals
53%
Sport Academy Kairat 3+ goals
26%
Zhetysu II 1+ goals
70%
Zhetysu II 2+ goals
34%
Zhetysu II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sport Academy Kairat (draw refunded)
66%
Zhetysu II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Academy Kairat at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.37 · 93 matches

Zhetysu II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Academy Kairat attack 2.57 + Zhetysu II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Zhetysu II attack 1.05 + Sport Academy Kairat defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sport Academy Kairat scores more
51%
level
23%
Zhetysu II scores more
26%

Sport Academy Kairat at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sport Academy Kairat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Academy Kairat vs Zhetysu II

Zhetysu II beat Sport Academy Kairat 1-0 in 1. Division on August 15, 2018.

The match was played at Stadïon Akademïï T.S.Segïzbaeva (Almatı (Almaty)).