Zhetysu II 4–1 Bulat: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Zhetysu II

FT

4 – 1

Bulat

Y. Oralbay 74', 55'

D. Kalybaev 63'

R. Orynbassar 35'

T. Nurseitov 2'

9/15/2020

1. Division · Group 1 - 1UTB Talgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zhetysu II72%

×Draw16%

Bulat11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zhetysu IIExpected goals in this matchBulat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

0.88

Zhetysu II

2.49

Bulat

0.88

Zhetysu II creates 183% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 43 away

2.26

creates per match

1.02

0.74

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

Zhetysu II

2.26

Bulat

1.02

allows per match

Zhetysu II

0.74

Bulat

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zhetysu II+0.00on par

Bulat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu II ↓

Bulat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Zhetysu II or draw

89%

Zhetysu II or Bulat

84%

Draw or Bulat

28%

Winning margin

Zhetysu II wins by 2+

50%

Bulat wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Zhetysu II 1+ goals

92%

Zhetysu II 2+ goals

71%

Zhetysu II 3+ goals

45%

Bulat 1+ goals

59%

Bulat 2+ goals

22%

Bulat 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu II (draw refunded)

86%

Bulat (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Bulat away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.72 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu II attack 2.26 + Bulat defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.49

Bulat attack 1.02 + Zhetysu II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Zhetysu II scores more

72%

level

16%

Bulat scores more

11%

Zhetysu II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Zhetysu II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

T. Nurseitov

35'

R. Orynbassar

40'

T. Ospanov

40'

T. Ospanov

51'

A. Mikhailov

51'

A. Mikhailov

55'

Y. Oralbay

63'

D. Kalybaev

74'

Y. Oralbay

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff