Bulat 1–3 Zhetysu II: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Bulat

FT

1 – 3

Zhetysu II

10/13/2020

1. Division · Group 1 - 8Sportkompleks BÏIK pole 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bulat36%

×Draw26%

Zhetysu II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BulatExpected goals in this matchZhetysu II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.33

Bulat

1.31

Zhetysu II

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

1.56

creates per match

1.05

1.60

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Bulat

1.56

Zhetysu II

1.05

allows per match

Bulat

1.60

Zhetysu II

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulat+0.00on par

Zhetysu II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulat ↓

Zhetysu II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bulat or draw

63%

Bulat or Zhetysu II

74%

Draw or Zhetysu II

64%

Winning margin

Bulat wins by 2+

16%

Zhetysu II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bulat 1+ goals

73%

Bulat 2+ goals

38%

Bulat 3+ goals

14%

Zhetysu II 1+ goals

74%

Zhetysu II 2+ goals

38%

Zhetysu II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bulat (draw refunded)

49%

Zhetysu II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulat at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Zhetysu II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulat attack 1.56 + Zhetysu II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

Zhetysu II attack 1.05 + Bulat defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bulat scores more

36%

level

26%

Zhetysu II scores more

37%

Zhetysu II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zhetysu II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff