Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zhetysu II vs Akademiya Ontustik — 1. Division 2019

Zhetysu II
Zhetysu II
FT
2 – 1
Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
D. Kalybayev 37', 13'
V. Afanasenko 19'
10/28/20201. Division1. Division · Group 1 - 13Sportkompleks BÏIK pole 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zhetysu II63%
×Draw20%
Akademiya Ontustik17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhetysu II
2.10
Akademiya Ontustik
0.99

Zhetysu II creates 112% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

Zhetysu II
2.26
Akademiya Ontustik
1.24

allows per match

Zhetysu II
0.74
Akademiya Ontustik
1.95

finishing

Zhetysu II+0.00on par
Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu II ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zhetysu II or draw
83%
Zhetysu II or Akademiya Ontustik
80%
Draw or Akademiya Ontustik
37%

Winning margin

Zhetysu II wins by 2+
39%
Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zhetysu II 1+ goals
88%
Zhetysu II 2+ goals
62%
Zhetysu II 3+ goals
35%
Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
63%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
26%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu II (draw refunded)
79%
Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.95 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu II attack 2.26 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.10

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.24 + Zhetysu II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Zhetysu II scores more
63%
level
20%
Akademiya Ontustik scores more
17%

Zhetysu II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Zhetysu II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
D. Kalybayev
19'
V. Afanasenko
37'
D. Kalybayev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhetysu II vs Akademiya Ontustik

Zhetysu II beat Akademiya Ontustik 2-1 in 1. Division on October 28, 2020.

Goals: D. Kalybayev (13', 37'), V. Afanasenko (19').

The match was played at Sportkompleks BÏIK pole 9 in Shymkent.