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Akademiya Ontustik vs Zhetysu II — 1. Division 2019

Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
FT
1 – 0
Zhetysu II
Zhetysu II
Unknown 77'
10/2/20201. Division1. Division · Group 1 - 6UTB Talgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik35%
×Draw25%
Zhetysu II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademiya Ontustik
1.36
Zhetysu II
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 20 away

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.73
Zhetysu II
1.05

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.91
Zhetysu II
1.00

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par
Zhetysu II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

Zhetysu II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw
60%
Akademiya Ontustik or Zhetysu II
75%
Draw or Zhetysu II
65%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
16%
Zhetysu II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
74%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
39%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
16%
Zhetysu II 1+ goals
77%
Zhetysu II 2+ goals
43%
Zhetysu II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
46%
Zhetysu II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 77 matches

Zhetysu II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.73 + Zhetysu II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Zhetysu II attack 1.05 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more
35%
level
25%
Zhetysu II scores more
40%

Zhetysu II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zhetysu II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'
81'
Z. Babanazarov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademiya Ontustik vs Zhetysu II

Akademiya Ontustik beat Zhetysu II 1-0 in 1. Division on October 2, 2020.

Goals: ? (77').

The match was played at UTB Talgar in Talgar.