Zhetisay 5–2 Yassy Turkistan: Result & Stats

Zhetisay

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Yassy Turkistan

5/2/2024

1. Division · Round 5Stadion im. K. Munaytpasova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zhetisay64%

×Draw18%

Yassy Turkistan18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZhetisayExpected goals in this matchYassy Turkistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.23

Zhetisay

2.46

Yassy Turkistan

1.23

Zhetisay creates 100% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 52 away

2.04

creates per match

1.35

1.11

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Zhetisay

2.04

Yassy Turkistan

1.35

allows per match

Zhetisay

1.11

Yassy Turkistan

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zhetisay+0.00on par

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetisay ↓

Yassy Turkistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Zhetisay or draw

82%

Zhetisay or Yassy Turkistan

82%

Draw or Yassy Turkistan

36%

Winning margin

Zhetisay wins by 2+

42%

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zhetisay 1+ goals

91%

Zhetisay 2+ goals

70%

Zhetisay 3+ goals

44%

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals

71%

Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals

35%

Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zhetisay (draw refunded)

78%

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetisay at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Yassy Turkistan away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetisay attack 2.04 + Yassy Turkistan defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.46

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.35 + Zhetisay defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zhetisay scores more

64%

level

18%

Yassy Turkistan scores more

18%

Zhetisay at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Zhetisay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff