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Yassy Turkistan vs Zhetisay — 1. Division 2019

Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Zhetisay
Zhetisay
10/3/20241. Division1. Division · Round 27Stadion Oktiyabr' Zharylkapov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Yassy Turkistan32%
×Draw24%
Zhetisay45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yassy Turkistan
1.39
Zhetisay
1.69

Zhetisay creates 22% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 28 away

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.28
Zhetisay
1.43

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.94
Zhetisay
1.50

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par
Zhetisay+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

Zhetisay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw
55%
Yassy Turkistan or Zhetisay
76%
Draw or Zhetisay
68%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
14%
Zhetisay wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
75%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
40%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
16%
Zhetisay 1+ goals
82%
Zhetisay 2+ goals
50%
Zhetisay 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
42%
Zhetisay (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.94 · 54 matches

Zhetisay away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.28 + Zhetisay defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Zhetisay attack 1.43 + Yassy Turkistan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more
32%
level
24%
Zhetisay scores more
45%

Zhetisay at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zhetisay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Yassy Turkistan 1–2 Zhetisay

Zhetisay beat Yassy Turkistan 2-1 in 1. Division on October 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Oktiyabr' Zharylkapov in Turkistan.