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Zhetisay vs Kyran — 1. Division 2019

Zhetisay
Zhetisay
CANC
00:00
Kyran
Kyran
10/24/20241. Division1. Division · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zhetisay52%
×Draw21%
Kyran26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhetisay
2.07
Kyran
1.42

Zhetisay creates 46% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 59 away

creates per match

Zhetisay
2.04
Kyran
1.73

allows per match

Zhetisay
1.11
Kyran
2.10

finishing

Zhetisay+0.00on par
Kyran+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetisay ↓

Kyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zhetisay or draw
74%
Zhetisay or Kyran
79%
Draw or Kyran
48%

Winning margin

Zhetisay wins by 2+
31%
Kyran wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zhetisay 1+ goals
87%
Zhetisay 2+ goals
61%
Zhetisay 3+ goals
34%
Kyran 1+ goals
76%
Kyran 2+ goals
41%
Kyran 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zhetisay (draw refunded)
67%
Kyran (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetisay at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Kyran away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetisay attack 2.04 + Kyran defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.07

Kyran attack 1.73 + Zhetisay defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zhetisay scores more
52%
level
21%
Kyran scores more
26%

Zhetisay at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zhetisay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zhetisay face Kyran (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Zhetisay hosting Kyran. Match starts October 24, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.