Kyran 0–1 Zhetisay: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Kyran

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zhetisay

R. Abylaykhan 73'

4/26/2024

1. Division · Round 4Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Kyran46%

×Draw23%

Zhetisay31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyranExpected goals in this matchZhetisay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.45

Kyran

1.80

Zhetisay

1.45

Kyran creates 24% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 28 away

2.11

creates per match

1.43

1.47

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kyran

2.11

Zhetisay

1.43

allows per match

Kyran

1.47

Zhetisay

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyran+0.00on par

Zhetisay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyran ↓

Zhetisay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kyran or draw

69%

Kyran or Zhetisay

77%

Draw or Zhetisay

54%

Winning margin

Kyran wins by 2+

25%

Zhetisay wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kyran 1+ goals

83%

Kyran 2+ goals

54%

Kyran 3+ goals

27%

Zhetisay 1+ goals

77%

Zhetisay 2+ goals

42%

Zhetisay 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kyran (draw refunded)

60%

Zhetisay (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyran at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.47 · 62 matches

Zhetisay away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyran attack 2.11 + Zhetisay defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Zhetisay attack 1.43 + Kyran defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kyran scores more

46%

level

23%

Zhetisay scores more

31%

Kyran at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

R. Abylaykhan

46'

Z. Erzhigit

46'

52'

K. Mukhituly

69'

A. Kamysbaev← A. Kamysbaev

72'

B. Kalibay

73'

R. Abylaykhan

79'

A. Oksikbayev← A. Oksikbayev

83'

D. Kasymbek← D. Kasymbek

84'

D. Kuanyshbay

84'

A. Asatulla

89'

90+1'

T. Zuftarov← T. Zuftarov

90+2'

90+6'

B. Ryskul← M. Aueskhan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff