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Zhetisay vs Arys — 1. Division 2019

Zhetisay
Zhetisay
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Arys
Arys
6/21/20241. Division1. Division · Round 12Stadion im. K. Munaytpasova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zhetisay60%
×Draw20%
Arys20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhetisay
2.20
Arys
1.21

Zhetisay creates 82% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 40 away

creates per match

Zhetisay
2.04
Arys
1.30

allows per match

Zhetisay
1.11
Arys
2.35

finishing

Zhetisay+0.00on par
Arys+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetisay ↓

Arys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zhetisay or draw
80%
Zhetisay or Arys
80%
Draw or Arys
40%

Winning margin

Zhetisay wins by 2+
37%
Arys wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zhetisay 1+ goals
89%
Zhetisay 2+ goals
64%
Zhetisay 3+ goals
37%
Arys 1+ goals
70%
Arys 2+ goals
34%
Arys 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zhetisay (draw refunded)
75%
Arys (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetisay at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Arys away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetisay attack 2.04 + Arys defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.20

Arys attack 1.30 + Zhetisay defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zhetisay scores more
60%
level
20%
Arys scores more
20%

Zhetisay at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zhetisay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Zhetisay 2–1 Arys

Zhetisay beat Arys 2-1 in 1. Division on June 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. K. Munaytpasova in Zhetisay.