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Arys vs Zhetisay — Cup 2019

Arys
Arys
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zhetisay
Zhetisay
V. Balashov 88'
Z. Sultaniazov 78', 77'
K. Taipov 48'
3/23/2023CupCup · Qualifying Round - 2Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Arys56%
×Draw20%
Zhetisay24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arys
2.21
Zhetisay
1.38

Arys creates 60% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Arys
1.67
Zhetisay
1.00

allows per match

Arys
1.75
Zhetisay
2.75

finishing

Arys+0.00on par
Zhetisay+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arys ↓

Zhetisay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Arys or draw
76%
Arys or Zhetisay
80%
Draw or Zhetisay
44%

Winning margin

Arys wins by 2+
34%
Zhetisay wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arys 1+ goals
89%
Arys 2+ goals
65%
Arys 3+ goals
38%
Zhetisay 1+ goals
75%
Zhetisay 2+ goals
40%
Zhetisay 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Arys (draw refunded)
70%
Zhetisay (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arys at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Zhetisay away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arys attack 1.67 + Zhetisay defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Zhetisay attack 1.00 + Arys defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Arys scores more
56%
level
20%
Zhetisay scores more
24%

Arys at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Arys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
A. Meshitkaliyev← A. Meshitkaliyev
46'
M. Vaganov← V. Balashov
46'
R. Nurmugamet← A. Khadzhiev
48'
K. Taipov
70'
M. Bashilov← A. Kakimov
71'
E. Beisembay← E. Beisembay
77'
Z. Sultaniazov
78'
Z. Sultaniazov
83'
K. Taipov← S. Satanov
83'
E. Rakhimov← E. Rakhimov
85'
T. Momyn← T. Momyn
85'
B. Nauryzkhan← B. Nauryzkhan
88'
V. Balashov
90+1'
N. Strizhkov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arys 4 – 0 Zhetisay

Arys beat Zhetisay 4-0 in Cup on March 23, 2023.

Goals: K. Taipov (48'), Z. Sultaniazov (77', 78'), V. Balashov (88').

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.