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Zhetisay vs Altay — 1. Division 2019

Zhetisay
Zhetisay
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Altay
Altay
8/29/20241. Division1. Division · Round 22Stadion im. K. Munaytpasova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zhetisay46%
×Draw25%
Altay29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhetisay
1.58
Altay
1.22

Zhetisay creates 30% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

creates per match

Zhetisay
2.04
Altay
1.33

allows per match

Zhetisay
1.11
Altay
1.13

finishing

Zhetisay+0.00on par
Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetisay ↓

Altay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zhetisay or draw
71%
Zhetisay or Altay
75%
Draw or Altay
54%

Winning margin

Zhetisay wins by 2+
23%
Altay wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zhetisay 1+ goals
79%
Zhetisay 2+ goals
47%
Zhetisay 3+ goals
21%
Altay 1+ goals
70%
Altay 2+ goals
34%
Altay 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zhetisay (draw refunded)
61%
Altay (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetisay at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Altay away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetisay attack 2.04 + Altay defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.58

Altay attack 1.33 + Zhetisay defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zhetisay scores more
46%
level
25%
Altay scores more
29%

Zhetisay at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zhetisay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
A. Seytkaliev
58'
K. Orazbek← K. Orazbek
64'
D. Kudaybergen← D. Kudaybergen
65'
D. Dastan← D. Dastan
65'
R. Bragin← R. Bragin
65'
A. Seytkaliev← A. Metallov
79'
D. Mazhitov
83'
E. Aytore← E. Aytore
87'
B. Sletov← B. Sletov
89'
A. Dzhanuzakov
90+2'
R. Bragin
90+2'
E. Sarbay

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Zhetisay 0–0 Altay

Zhetisay and Altay drew 0-0 in 1. Division on August 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. K. Munaytpasova in Zhetisay.