Altay 0–0 Zhetisay: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Altay

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zhetisay

6/28/2024

1. Division · Round 13Stadion Vostok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Altay47%

×Draw25%

Zhetisay28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltayExpected goals in this matchZhetisay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.16

Altay

1.57

Zhetisay

1.16

Altay creates 35% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

1.64

creates per match

1.43

0.89

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Altay

1.64

Zhetisay

1.43

allows per match

Altay

0.89

Zhetisay

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altay+0.00on par

Zhetisay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Zhetisay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Altay or draw

72%

Altay or Zhetisay

75%

Draw or Zhetisay

53%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+

24%

Zhetisay wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals

79%

Altay 2+ goals

46%

Altay 3+ goals

21%

Zhetisay 1+ goals

69%

Zhetisay 2+ goals

32%

Zhetisay 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)

62%

Zhetisay (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Zhetisay away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.64 + Zhetisay defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Zhetisay attack 1.43 + Altay defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Altay scores more

47%

level

25%

Zhetisay scores more

28%

Altay at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

M. Kovalev← M. Kovalev

56'

T. Zuftarov← T. Zuftarov

69'

A. Seytkaliev← A. Dzhanuzakov

69'

B. Malikov← B. Malikov

75'

A. Metallov

75'

K. Orazbek← K. Orazbek

75'

D. Mazhitov← B. Kalibay

77'

A. Dzhanuzakov

80'

A. Rakhimzhanov← A. Rakhimzhanov

86'

A. Dzhanuzakov

86'

A. Dzhanuzakov

89'

A. Rakhimzhanov

90'

T. Zuftarov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff