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Zhenys vs Taraz — 1. Division 2019

Zhenys
Zhenys
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Taraz
Taraz
8/25/20231. Division1. Division · Round 21Astana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zhenys55%
×Draw22%
Taraz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhenys
1.93
Taraz
1.17

Zhenys creates 65% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 48 away

creates per match

Zhenys
2.00
Taraz
1.13

allows per match

Zhenys
1.22
Taraz
1.85

finishing

Zhenys+0.00on par
Taraz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhenys ↓

Taraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zhenys or draw
77%
Zhenys or Taraz
78%
Draw or Taraz
45%

Winning margin

Zhenys wins by 2+
32%
Taraz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zhenys 1+ goals
85%
Zhenys 2+ goals
57%
Zhenys 3+ goals
30%
Taraz 1+ goals
69%
Taraz 2+ goals
33%
Taraz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zhenys (draw refunded)
71%
Taraz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhenys at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Taraz away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.85 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhenys attack 2.00 + Taraz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.93

Taraz attack 1.13 + Zhenys defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zhenys scores more
55%
level
22%
Taraz scores more
23%

Zhenys at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zhenys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zhenys 1 – 1 Taraz

Zhenys and Taraz drew 1-1 in 1. Division on August 25, 2023.

The match was played at Astana Arena in Astana.