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Taraz vs Zhenys — Cup 2019

Taraz
Taraz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Zhenys
Zhenys
A. Mukanbetzhanov 76'
E. Toibekov 64'
S. Shekiladze 24', 23'
3/21/2023CupCup · Qualifying Round - 2Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Taraz37%
×Draw24%
Zhenys39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taraz
1.54
Zhenys
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Taraz
1.46
Zhenys
2.13

allows per match

Taraz
1.08
Zhenys
1.63

finishing

Taraz+0.00on par
Zhenys+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taraz ↓

Zhenys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Taraz or draw
61%
Taraz or Zhenys
76%
Draw or Zhenys
63%

Winning margin

Taraz wins by 2+
18%
Zhenys wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Taraz 1+ goals
79%
Taraz 2+ goals
45%
Taraz 3+ goals
20%
Zhenys 1+ goals
80%
Zhenys 2+ goals
47%
Zhenys 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Taraz (draw refunded)
48%
Zhenys (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taraz at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Zhenys away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taraz attack 1.46 + Zhenys defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Zhenys attack 2.13 + Taraz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Taraz scores more
37%
level
24%
Zhenys scores more
39%

Zhenys at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zhenys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
D. Lesbek
23'
S. Shekiladze
24'
S. Shekiladze
50'
R. Khayrullin
51'
A. Ashirbek
54'
E. Abdulla
59'
A. Sapargaliyev
64'
E. Toibekov
76'
A. Mukanbetzhanov
76'
A. Mukanbetzhanov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taraz vs Zhenys

Taraz and Zhenys drew 2-2 in Cup on March 21, 2023.

Goals: S. Shekiladze (23', 24'), E. Toibekov (64'), A. Mukanbetzhanov (76').

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.