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Sagrada Esperança vs Benfica Luanda — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
CANC
15:00
Benfica Luanda
Benfica Luanda
7/29/2016GirabolaGirabola · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sagrada Esperança50%
×Draw30%
Benfica Luanda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.26
Benfica Luanda
0.68

Sagrada Esperança creates 85% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.67
Benfica Luanda
0.82

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.54
Benfica Luanda
0.86

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Benfica Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Benfica Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
80%
Sagrada Esperança or Benfica Luanda
70%
Draw or Benfica Luanda
50%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
23%
Benfica Luanda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
72%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
36%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
13%
Benfica Luanda 1+ goals
49%
Benfica Luanda 2+ goals
15%
Benfica Luanda 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
71%
Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.54 · 104 matches

Benfica Luanda away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.67 + Benfica Luanda defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.26

Benfica Luanda attack 0.82 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
50%
level
30%
Benfica Luanda scores more
20%

Sagrada Esperança at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sagrada Esperança vs Benfica Luanda — Match Preview

Sagrada Esperança face Benfica Luanda on July 29, 2016 in this Girabola fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.